Risk and uncertainty courses typically cover the basics of probabilistic assessment. Participants learn to apply prescriptive principles to single zones. However, this course goes beyond the basics, demonstrating how to intelligently combine multiple objectives and to assess the relationships among the objectives. Darrel Norman, chief geoscientist for GeoKnowledge, will be discussing the many topics and techniques involved in the principles of risk and uncertainty. Attendees will gain skill sets and information that can be used for immediate implementation to real time working environments. This course will be part of the AAPG Summer Education Conference and will be held Thursday and Friday, June 19-20, 2014 in Aurora, Colorado at the Summit Conference Center. For more information: Risk and Uncertainty for Contemporary Prospect Evaluations -SEC

Presentation Details

Event: Summer Education Conference
Presentation: Risk and Uncertainty for Contemporary Prospect Evaluations
Presenter(s): Darrel Norman – GeoKnowledge
Date: June 19-20, 2014 (Thursday & Friday)
Location: The Summit Conference Center, Aurora, Colorado

Who Should Attend

This course is designed for geoscientists and engineers who are involved in the pre-drill assessment of resource volumes and risks in multiple-objective exploration prospects. Any professional who is familiar with the basics of risk and uncertainty, and who is ready to take the “next step” by applying the basic principles to the complex, multiple-objective prospects described by modern evaluation techniques, will benefit.

The course provides participants with an overview of the methods required to quantify the risks and uncertainties defined by a modern geologic evaluation. Emphasis is on the assessment of modern prospects that contain multiple objectives such as stacked pays, faulted anticlines, or channel complexes. By the end of the course, participants should be able to accomplish the following:

  • Calculate the hydrocarbon volume within a single objective using depth-dependent methods.
  • Calculate the chance of success and mean resource volume for a multiple-objective prospect, including a prospect with risk dependency among objectives.
  • Create a hydrocarbon-water contact uncertainty distribution for a structure that contains multiple trap types such as a fault dependent trap below a fault-independent closure.
  • Describe and assess hydrocarbon-water contact scenarios for a prospect that contains multiple structures, such a two anticlines separated by a saddle, and incorporate risk trap or seal risk on the individual structures.

Course Content

The course combines lectures, open discussion, and exercises to illustrate the assessment of a typical “modern” prospect. The course encourages the intelligent application of the methods, rather than on prescriptive “cookbook recipes.” Instruction is based on the philosophy that the geologic evaluation, including the risks and uncertainties associated with the evaluation, should define the assessment methods.

The exercises involve manual calculations, using graphs or hand calculators. The principles can be applied to any assessment software application that allows assessment of multiple objectives. The participants will learn to understand the inputs and results of their assessment application, rather than viewing the program as a “black box.”

Conference Content

2014 Summer Education Conference

The four concurrent sessions allow attendees to mix and match according to their interests and training needs. Courses for the conference may be purchased individually. These individual prices are reflected in the pricing on the course descriptions.

Course notes will be provided in digital format on CD only, so laptops with CD drives are required for all courses. If you do not have access to a laptop computer with a CD drive, please contact the AAPG Education Dept. for an alternate method to download the digital course notes.

** For registration and full event details please visit: HERE! **

Last 5 posts by Susan Nash

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