Quantification of Geologic Risk

Quantification of geologic risk is the subject of a short course taught at AAPG’s Summer Education Conference in Fort Worth. The course, which will be held on June 21 & 22, focuses on the first two days of our flagship five day course on Exploration Risk Analysis, primarily on the geotechnical concepts and principles of estimating under uncertainty, especially as related to the measurement of and communication about your prospects. The instructor, Dr. Gary Citron, is currently working at Rose & Associates, LLP, and has over a dozen publications on subjects related to risk analysis, tectonics, and, geochemistry.                                                                                                                                                                        

By the end of this course, participants will be able to:

  • Apply fundamental concepts of statistical description and analysis to geologic trend data.
  • Deal with the inherent uncertainty on prospect characterizations using those statistical descriptions.
  • Estimate the volumetric parameters that lead to the resource potential of a prospect, given success.
  • Estimate the chance parameters related to the petroleum system that lead to the probability of various success states.
  • Apply an internally consistent set of reality checks to those estimates.
  • Understand how the post well appraisals in exploration lead to the calibration for better estimating in future prospects.
  • Communicate in a more disciplined fashion about prospect potential and concerns.

For more information about the course, please visit the website:


The course, which is a part of the Summer Education Conference, is ideal for explorers and engineers who need to characterize resource potential and chance of success for their investment opportunities in a consistent, calibrated and systematic fashion.

If you have any questions, please email educate@aapg.org

Last 5 posts by Susan Nash

Share and Enjoy:
  • Digg
  • Sphinn
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Mixx
  • Google Bookmarks
  • BlogMemes
  • LinkedIn
  • Reddit
  • StumbleUpon
  • Technorati
  • Tumblr
  • TwitThis